Three scenarios describe alternative developments for cashMoney in physical form such as banknotes and coins. More and its environment in Germany up to 2037. Although the scenarios are intrinsically plausible and logical images of the future, they are not forecasts.
This scenario envisions a highly digitalized world where cash becomes almost obsolete, representing only 15% of transactions. While cash still holds value as a backup in times of emergency, it is no longer integrated into mainstream payment systems. The vast majority of payments occur through cashless means powered by artificial intelligence and digital systems. However, this heavy reliance on digital payments increases vulnerability to cyberattacks and technical disruptions. Cash’s availability becomes severely limited, with fewer ATMs and bank branches, leading to reduced access for those who still prefer it.
In this scenario, there is a partial resurgence of cash use, driven by a reaction against the vulnerabilities exposed by crises such as wars, pandemics, and supply chain disruptions. People, particularly in local communities, begin to favor cash as a symbol of independence, resilience, and a sustainable way of life. Digital and cash payment systems coexist, with cash being preferred in certain contexts for its simplicity and security. The decline in cash usage slows down significantly compared to the other scenarios, and the government introduces policies to ensure its continued accessibility, including regulatory measures to support infrastructure for cash transactions.
This scenario describes a pluralistic and complex payment landscape where cash coexists with various cashless payment methods, but its role continues to decline. Cash is mainly used by specific groups, such as the elderly, low-income individuals, and those who mistrust digital systems due to privacy concerns. Although cash remains available, the shrinking infrastructure—such as fewer ATMs and withdrawal points—makes access more difficult, leading to its further decline in daily transactions.
Despite differences in how cash is used, all three scenarios highlight several common trends:
The report also delves into public opinion on cash, analyzing attitudes through focus groups and surveys based on the SINUS milieus model, which segments society by values and lifestyle rather than just demographics. The findings show that:
The scenarios underscore that cash will not completely disappear within the next 15 to 20 years. However, the study suggests that access to and use of cash will continue to erode unless deliberate action is taken. Policymakers and cash cycleRepresents the various stages of the lifecycle of cash, from issuance by the central bank, circulation in the economy, to destruction by the central bank. More stakeholders must act to maintain the balance between cash and cashless options, ensuring the public retains freedom of choice in how they pay. Cash remains crucial as a backup during crises, and regulatory measures could be necessary to keep the infrastructure in place to support it.
While cash is likely to remain in circulation for at least the next two decades, its role in the payment system will diminish unless steps are taken to preserve its accessibility. Each of the scenarios reveals the need for proactive measures from both the public and private sectors to sustain cash as a viable payment option. The Bundesbank aims to continue its support for cash and engage in dialogue with various stakeholders to ensure that cash remains a cornerstone of Germany’s payment landscape.