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A Penny for your Thoughts : the Chaotic Exit of the US Penny

Categories : Cash connects people, Cash covers a broad range of transactions, Cash is a symbol of national sovereignty
November 18, 2025
Tags : Coins, Mints, US
The U.S. penny, a symbol of American commerce since 1793, is disappearing amid unprecedented turmoil. The Treasury’s decision earlier this year to halt penny production, driven by cost-saving measures has left retailers, consumers, and policymakers scrambling.
Guillaume Lepecq

Chair, CashEssentials

The move follows similar phase-outs in Canada (2012) and Australia (1992). The abrupt transition, marked by short notice and a lack of clear rules, risks distorting inflation perceptions, undermining financial literacy, eroding trust in U.S. currency, and creating logistical nightmares for businesses.

According to the U.S. Mint’s 2024 Annual Report, producing a single Lincoln cent costs 3.69 cents — up from 3.07 cents in 2023 and 2.72 cents in 2022. Given these costs, many argue that eliminating low-denomination coins is a responsible step. However, the cost of minting a nickel has surged to 13.78 cents per coin. With pennies gone, the Mint will need to increase nickel production, but the operational and financial implications remain unclear. There are currently over 300 billion pennies in circulation.

The Inflation Mirage: Rounding and the Psychology of Pricing

The penny’s disappearance forces retailers to round prices to the nearest nickel—a change that may seem minor but carries major psychological and financial consequences.

The Rounding Tax

When a $1.99 item becomes $2.00, the one-cent difference may appear trivial, but the cumulative effect is significant. According to the National Association of Convenience Stores, rounding down in cash transactions—where two pennies in change are typical—could cost the industry $1.25 million per day.

Conversely, rounding up shifts the burden to consumers. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond estimates that rounding to the nearest nickel would cost consumers about $6 million annually, but the psychological toll could be far greater. Shoppers may perceive rounded-up prices as evidence of rising inflation, even if the actual rate remains stable. This perception is dangerous: if people believe prices are climbing, they may cut spending, demand higher wages, or lose confidence in economic stability.

Scenario Estimated Cost Affected Party
Rounding down $1.25 million/day Retailers (lost revenue)
Rounding to nearest nickel $6 million/year Consumers
Canadian-style rounding Distributed Shared between retailers and consumers

 

A 2018 paper by Christina Cheung ‘Eliminating the Penny in Canada: An Economic Analysis of Penny-Rounding on Grocery Items’ found that penny-rounding in grocery transactions imposed a “rounding tax” of approximately $3.27 million, from Canadian consumers to grocery vendors. For a typical grocery store, this amounted to an estimated additional revenue of $15, indicating a minimal impact on individual consumers.

The Death of “Psychological Pricing”

Retailers have long used pricing strategies ending in .99 to create the illusion of a bargain. Without pennies, this tactic collapses. Prices defaulting to .95 or .00 erase the perception of savings, making goods seem more expensive. For low-income households, who rely heavily on cash, the impact is acute. Programs like SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) require exact change, but the penny shortage makes compliance impossible. Retailers are caught between legal requirements in at least 10 states and cities that mandate exact change and the reality of a disappearing coin.

A Logistical Nightmare

The lack of federal guidelines has created a patchwork of rounding policies. Some retailers round up or down based on the total, while others absorb the cost. The American Bankers Association (ABA) has proposed adopting the Canadian model: rounding down for amounts ending in 1, 2, 6, or 7 cents, and up for 3, 4, 8, or 9 cents. However, without congressional action to legalize this approach, businesses face compliance risks and customer confusion.

The departure of Ventris C. Gibson, the Mint Director, in November 2025 has left a leadership void just as retailers need clarity. Industry groups are lobbying Congress for legal protection to round to the nearest nickel, but progress is stalled. Meanwhile, the holiday shopping season—already a high-stress period—is now complicated by inconsistent change policies.

Financial Literacy: The Loss of a Teaching Tool

The penny has been a cornerstone of financial education for generations. Its disappearance removes a tangible tool for teaching children—and adults—the value of money.

The End of Hands-On Learning

Pennies were often a child’s first introduction to counting, saving, and budgeting. Without them, financial literacy programs must adapt. Digital transactions lack the physicality that reinforces lessons about money, particularly in underserved communities where cash is still king.

The Abstraction of Money

Research shows that people spend more when using credit cards than cash, partly because physical money creates a psychological “pain” of payment. The penny’s absence accelerates the shift toward digital payments, risking poorer financial habits. For adults who rely on cash, rounding obscures the true cost of purchases, making budgeting harder.

Trust in Currency Eroding: A Symbol of Stability Vanishes

The penny was more than a coin; it was a symbol of stability and inclusivity. Its abrupt removal, combined with the Mint’s leadership crisis, risks undermining trust in U.S. currency.

The Marginalization of Cash

Nearly 7 million unbanked U.S. households rely on cash for transparency and control. The penny’s demise is another step toward a financial system that excludes those without digital access. Retailers in states with exact-change laws face fines or lawsuits if they round, while customers paying in cash may feel penalized compared to those using cards or apps.

Legal Chaos and Compliance Risks

With no federal standards, businesses are improvising. The ABA and retail groups warn that without legal protection, the transition will be chaotic. 

The Penny Timeline

Event Date Impact
Mint announces penny phase-out June 2025 Retailers begin preparing for rounding
Federal Reserve suspends penny distribution August 2025 Shortages worsen; ad-hoc policies emerge
Resignation of Mint Director Ventris C. Gibson November 2025 Leadership gap deepens uncertainty
Retailers report $1.25M/day potential losses November 2025 Industry lobbies Congress for rounding rules
Holiday shopping season December 2025 Confusion peaks as customers encounter inconsistent policies

The Mint’s Existential Crisis: Losing a Core Business

The Mint produced billions of pennies annually, accounting for roughly 60% of its coin output. The sudden halt threatens jobs, facilities, and the agency’s mission. The departure of Director Gibson has stalled strategic decisions, leaving the Mint without a plan to offset lost revenue or modernize operations.

A Scramble for Relevance

The Mint must pivot to producing more nickels, dimes, and quarters or explore new revenue streams like commemorative coins. But these transitions require time and investment—resources the agency lacks amid a leadership vacuum

The Abrupt Changeover: Short Notice, No Rules, Widespread Confusion

Unlike Canada’s three-year phase-out, the U.S. transition has been rushed.

Retailers Left in the Lurch

Convenience stores, where half of 125 million daily purchases are in cash, face the brunt of the challenges. Some absorb the cost; others round arbitrarily. The National Retail Federation warns that without federal intervention, the confusion could harm holiday sales and erode consumer trust.

Banks and the Penny Shortage

The Federal Reserve’s decision to close most of its 165 coin hubs has cut off penny supplies, leaving banks unable to meet retailer demand. The ABA has urged the Fed to reopen hubs, but no action has been taken.A Small Coin, a Big Mess

The penny’s disappearance was meant to save money. Instead, it has created a $1.25 million/day dilemma for retailers, confused consumers, and eroded trust in U.S. currency. The Mint’s leadership vacuum and lack of clear rules have turned a manageable change into a challenge.

The lesson? Institutional changes require planning, transparency, and strong leadership. The penny may be gone, but the fallout from its poorly managed exit will linger—unless action is taken now. The cost of failure isn’t just measured in cents; it’s measured in the confidence the American currency.

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