Cash in 2026: Five Tensions to Watch

The future of cashMoney in physical form such as banknotes and coins. More lies at the intersection of opposing tensions, each of which could swing dramatically in either direction. Below, we explore five key tensions which will likely define the role of cash, presenting two radical but plausible outcomes for each.

1. The Evolution of Global Uncertainty and Geopolitical Fragmentation

Amid economic instability and geopolitical tensions, cash demand has surged globally as a crisis hedge and store of valueOne of the functions of money or more generally of any asset that can be saved and exchanged at a later time without loss of its purchasing power. See also Precautionary Holdings. More. Will uncertainty continue to grow under the combined pressures of geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and cyber threats, or will a return to stability relegate cash to a secondary role?

Scenario A: Uncertainty Escalates and Cash Becomes the Global Stabilizer

• Drivers: Escalating geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S attack on Venezuela, prolonged Ukraine war, US threat on Greenland and Iren), persistent inflation, and distrust in digital systems push households, businesses, and governments to hoard physical currencyThe money used in a particular country at a particular time, like dollar, yen, euro, etc., consisting of banknotes and coins, that does not require endorsement as a medium of exchange. More.
• Weak Signals:
  • Gold and silverWhite, shiny, and soft metal used to mint coins or medals. More prices hit record highs in 2026, reflecting a broader flight to tangible assets. Central banks in emerging markets stockpile hard currency to stabilize their economies.
  • In conflict zones and sanctioned economies (e.g., Ukraine, Iran), cash becomes a critical medium of exchangeThe Eurosystem comprises the European Central Bank and the national central banks of those countries that have adopted the euro. More as digital paymentA transfer of funds which discharges an obligation on the part of a payer vis-à-vis a payee. More systems face restrictions, cyber threats or state surveillance.
  • Cyberattacks become part of the arsenal of modern warfare, making cash the ultimate backup for governments and businesses.
• Outcome: Cash demand surges, particularly for high-denomination notes. Governments and central banks reinforce cash infrastructure, ensuring its availability as a backup to fragile digital systems. Cash is celebrated as a bulwark against financial fragmentation and a tool for economic sovereignty.

Scenario B: A Return to Geopolitical Stability where Cash Is the Safety Net

• Drivers: Realpolitik prevails, and the world heads toward more stability. Open conflicts are stabilized (e.g., Rwanda & DRC, Israel-Gaza), and diplomatic channels are reopened.
• Weak Signals:
  • Digital alternatives (CBDCs, stablecoins) gain traction as “safer” stores of value.
  • Trust in digital systems is restored as geopolitical risks subside, reducing the urgency to store cash.
  • Cash remains a safety net but is no longer the primary hedge against instability.
• Outcome: Cash retains a role as a backup but is no longer the critical crisis asset. Its usage stabilizes at lower levels.

2. Cash and Digital Payments—Coexistence vs. Cannibalization

Digital payments continue to grow, but cash refuses to disappear. Will the two systems find a sustainable balance, or will digital payment providers reignite the war on cashThe expression refers to various policies by governments and campaigns run by other stakeholders, including providers of alternative payment instruments, aimed at reducing or at abolishing the use of cash altogether. This includes for instance the withdrawal of high‐denomination banknotes or restrictions on cash transactions as well as spreading misinformation on the usage and properties of cash. More?

Scenario A: A Hybrid Future Where Cash Thrives Alongside Digital

• Drivers: The downsides of digitalisation – financial exclusion and inequality ; erosion of privacy and surveillance ; systemic fragility and lack of resilience ; overspending and addiction… – are increasingly  recognised. Consumers use cash alongside digital payments.
• Weak signals:
  • Digital banks and cashtechThe expression was first coined by CashEssentials and is the encounter of cash and technology. It brings together innovative companies who leverage software and modern communications technology to improve cash services: access to cash; acceptance of cash; and the efficiency of the cash cycle for all stakeholders. More companies create bridges between cash and digital (e.g., Revolut deploying ATMs, non-bank cash deposit solutions)
  • Central banks and governments collaborate to integrate cash with digital systems (e.g., CBDCs).
  • Regulators strengthen the legal framework by mandating acceptance of and access to cash.
  • Dome countries ban social media for minors and impose health warnings for digital payments.
• Outcome: Cash and digital payments coexist in a complementary ecosystem. Cash serves as a fallback during tech outages and a bridge for financial inclusionA process by which individuals and businesses can access appropriate, affordable, and timely financial products and services. These include banking, loan, equity, and insurance products. While it is recognised that not all individuals need or want financial services, the goal of financial inclusion is to remove all barriers, both supply side and demand side. Supply side barriers stem from financial institutions themselves. They often indicate poor financial infrastructure, and include lack of ne... More.

Scenario B: Digital Payments Render Cash Obsolete

• Drivers: The convenience and tracaeability of digital payments makes cash seem antiquated. The shift to digital is supported by strong coporate and government camapigns.
• Weak signals:
  • Digital payments see their share of payments increase to the detriment of cash.
  • Retailers and service providers (e.g., airlines, fast food) incentivize digital payments with discounts, and penalise cash users, or refuse to accept cash.
  • Bigtech companies launch their own digital currencies and challenge fiat currencies.
  • Technofascists launch a new libertarian state in the Arctic with a crypto as legal tenderMoney that is legally valid for the payment of debts and must be accepted for that purpose when offered. Each jurisdiction determines what is legal tender, but essentially it is anything which when offered (“tendered”) in payment of a debt extinguishes the debt. There is no obligation on the creditor to accept the tendered payment, but the act of tendering the payment in legal tender discharges the debt. More.
• Outcome: Cash payments plummet in developed economies. ATMs disappear, and cash is preserved only as a niche tool for the techno-resistance.

3. CBDCs—Complement or Competitor to Cash?

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are designed to modernize moneyFrom the Latin word moneta, nickname that was given by Romans to the goddess Juno because there was a minting workshop next to her temple. Money is any item that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts, such as taxes, in a particular region, country or socio-economic context. Its onset dates back to the origins of humanity and its physical representation has taken on very varied forms until the appearance of metal coins. The banknote, a typical representati... More, but their relationship with cash is ambiguous. Will they prop up cash by offering a digital alternative, or will they accelerate its decline?

Scenario A: CBDCs Revitalize Cash by Extending its Reach

• Drivers: CBDCs are rolled out as digital cash—anonymous, free to use, and universally accessible, mirroring the best features of physical money.
• Weak Signals:
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan emphasize that CBDCs will complement cash, not replace it, focusing on privacy and offline usability.
  • Pilot projects in India and China show CBDCs being used alongside cash, particularly in rural areas where digital infrastructure is weak.
• Outcome: CBDCs breathe new life into the concept of “public money”, reinforcing trust in central bank-issued currency—both physical and digital. Cash remains a cornerstone of financial inclusion, while CBDCs handle digital transactions.

Scenario B: CBDCs Kill Cash by Design

• Drivers: Governments and central banks use CBDCs to phase out cash, citing cost savings, anti-money laundering (AML)Many jurisdictions have established regulations and set up sophisticated financial and other monitoring systems to enable law enforcement agencies to uncover illegally obtained funds and detect suspicious transactions or activities. International cooperation arrangements have been set up to assist these endeavors. Many anti-money laundering laws combine money laundering (which is concerned with the source of funds) with terrorism financing (which is concerned with the destination of funds) when ... More benefits, and monetary policy control.
• Weak Signals:
  • Early CBDC adopters—see cash usage drop as digital currencies take over daily transactions.
  • Advanced economies pilot CBDCs with programmable features (e.g. expiration dates, spending restrictions) making cash redundant.
• Outcome: Cash is withdrawn from circulation in favor of traceable, programmable CBDCs. Physical money becomes a collector’s item, used only by dissenters or in off-grid communities.

4. Policy & Regulation : Redesigning Cash Infrastructure vs. Continued Deterioration

The Debate

A growing number of countries are introducing policies to support cash infrastructure. Will they succeed, or will they only slow down the shift toward digital payments?

Scenario A: Central Banks and Regulators Succeed in Revitalising Cash

• Drivers: Proactive policies and investments in cash infrastructure (e.g., ATM deployment, cash acceptance mandates, Access to cash policies) ensure cash remains accessible and relevant.
• Weak Signals:
  • The Austrian Central Bank deploys ATMs in rural areas to guarantee access to cashthefutureofcash.com.
  • Countries like Sweden, the Netherlands, Ireland, and the UK adopt regulatory measures to ensure cash acceptance and accessibility.
  • Mandatory acceptance of cash is either adopted (China, Denmark, France, Spain..) or being considered (EU, US…)
• Outcome: Cash infrastructure is modernized and expanded, ensuring the continued role of cash for financial inclusion and economic resilience. Cash remains a viable and trusted payment methodSee Payment instrument. More, particularly in underserved regions.

Scenario B: Cash Infrastructure Crumbles Under Digitalisation

• Drivers: The U.S. and EU leverage digital currencies (e.g., Stablecoins, CBDCs) to enforce sanctions, making cash transactions riskier and less practical.
• Weak Signals:
  • The number of ATMs shrinks globally as digital payments become the norm.
  • Governments and businesses prioritize digital-first policies, leading to a decline in cash acceptance and availability.
• Outcome: Cash is squeezed out of mainstream payments. Its use is limited to domestic niche markets or small-scale transactions.

5. Consumer Demand—Convenience and Rewards vs. Privacy and Security

Consumers face a fundamental dilemma: the convenience and rewards of digital payments versus the privacy, security, and tangibility of cash. Will cash adapt to modern expectations—leveraging its unique strengths—or will it be dismissed as cumbersome, risky, and outdated? The answer hinges on whether cash can reinvent its value proposition for a generation raised on digital immediacy while retaining its core attributes of trust, inclusion, and resilience.

Scenario A: Cash Reinvents Itself as Anonymous, Secure, and Smart

• Drivers: Growing backlash against digital surveillance, algorithmic bias and the loss of human interaction erode trust in digital payments. Cash, as the only truly anonymous payment method, becomes a symbol of freedom.

• Weak Signals :
  • Cultural Shift Toward Financial Sovereignty: Movements advocating for data ownership and payment choice reframe cash as a tool of empowerment, not just a legacy system.
  • Generations Z and following adopt cash for budgeting, protest (e.g., China’s social credit system, EU digital identity debates), and small business support.
  • Regulatory Support for Cash: Governments mandate cash acceptance and
  • Eco-Friendly Banknotes: Sustainable banknotes and coins and carbon-neutral cash cycles address environmental concerns.

• Outcome: Cash thrives as a vital and mainstream monetary instrument method. It becomes a symbol of resistance against corporate and state overreach, embraced by privacy advocates, artists, and off-grid communities. Central banks issue limited-edition notes (e.g., commemorative designs, local artist collaborations) to boost cultural appeal.

Scenario B: Cash Is Branded as the “Dirty Currency”

• Drivers: Aggressive Digital Marketing by Fintechs and Big Tech launch campaigns portraying cash as unsanitary, inefficient, and criminal. Digital payments are framed as clean, modern, and rewarding—with cashbackA service whereby the customer pays electronically a higher amount to a retailer than the value of the purchase for goods and/or services and receives the difference in cash. It is also a reward system associated with credit card usage, whereby the consumer receives a percentage of the amount spent on the credit card. More, discounts, and seamless integration into lifestyle apps. Governments cite money launderingThe operation of attempting to disguise a set of fraudulently or criminally obtained funds as legal, in operations undeclared to tax authorities, and therefore not subjected to taxation. Money laundering activities are strongly pursued by authorities and in most countries, there are strict rules for credit institutions to cooperate in the fight against money laundering operations, to declare and report any transactions that could be considered suspicious. More, tax evasion, and environmental costs to justify restrictions on cash.
• Weak Signals :

• • EU Cash Limits: The €10,000 cash payment cap is lowered to €3,000, then €1,000, under AML pretexts.
  • US “Cashless Society” Incentives: States offer tax breaks to businesses that go cashless, while banks charge fees for cash withdrawals.
  • CBDC Programmability: Central banks introduce expiry dates on digital currency to discourage hoardingThe term refers to the use of cash as a store of value. However, the term has a negative connotation of concealment, and is often used in the context of the war on cash. See Precautionary Holdings. More, making cash seem obsolete.
  • Retailer Collusion: Global chains (e.g., Starbucks, Amazon, McDonald’s) refuse cash, citing “safety” and “efficiency.” Small merchants follow suit to avoid penalties or customer friction.

Outcome: Cash usage plummets, surviving only in Emergency Stockpiles: (Hoarded by preppers and governments for crises) and in Black Markets,  used for untraceable transactions in sanctioned economies (e.g., Iran, Venezuela). High-denomination notes become collectibles, traded like rare coins. Wealthy elites use cash for discreet purchases (art, real estate), while everyday consumers face financial exclusion.

Conclusion

We cannot predict the future. We can however aim for a future that offers greater geopolitical stability, sustainable and resilient growth, protection of privacy and civil liberties, and control over AI and technological dependency. Cash is a vital tool for economic stability, financial and social inclusion, protection of privacy and civil liberties as well as economic resilience. The future of cash depends on our ability to navigate the tensions between global uncertainty, digital innovation, regulatory frameworks, and consumer preferences.